Imagine a world where the very foundations of America's stability are being tested like never before. This is the stark reality that Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio is warning us about, and it's a prospect that should send shivers down the spines of investors and citizens alike. As someone who's always on the lookout for the next big issue that could derail the economy, Dalio is sounding the alarm on a multitude of factors that are converging to create a perfect storm of instability. But here's where it gets really concerning: he's not just talking about external threats, but also about the deep-seated divisions within America itself. The rising tensions, the national debt, and the 'wars of all kinds' that are being waged on multiple fronts are all combining to create a toxic brew that's threatening to upend the very fabric of our society. And this is the part that most people miss: the fact that these conflicts are not just about politics or economics, but about the very values and principles that America was founded upon. As Dalio so eloquently puts it, 'We're in wars. There is a financial, money war. There's a technology war, there's geopolitical wars, and there are more military wars. And so we have a civil war of some sort which is developing in the U.S. and elsewhere, where there are irreconcilable differences.' But what's even more alarming is that Dalio believes that these conflicts are not just going to magically resolve themselves. In fact, he thinks that they're going to get worse before they get better, and that the ability of individuals to 'hurt each other' has never been higher. So, what's the way forward? According to Dalio, there are only two possible outcomes for America: either the nation pulls together and rises above its differences, or the conflicting sides exert as much pain on each other as they can. And this is where it gets really idealistic: Dalio believes that society may 'rise above it and realize that our common good is going to necessitate us dealing with it so that what works for most people is going to work.' However, he's also a practical person, and he thinks that these conflicts will ultimately become tests of power by each side. Now, some of you may be thinking that Dalio is being overly pessimistic, that he's the boy who cried wolf. But the truth is that his warnings have been proven right time and time again. Back in 2007, Bridgewater began to warn of large risks embedded 'in the system', and by 2008, a financial crisis had hit. And in, Dalio warned that the likelihood of a third world war had increased to 50% following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and the Israel-Hamas conflict. So, what's driving these conflicts? For Dalio, it all comes down to the national debt, which he believes is one of the biggest threats facing America today. Like many of his peers, including Jamie Dimon and Jerome Powell, Dalio is worried that one day America's need to sell debt will outweigh the market's appetite to buy it. This will likely be prompted by America's debt-to-GDP ratio becoming even more imbalanced, at which point debt buyers will demand higher premiums to ensure returns, or will exit the market entirely. Either option leaves the U.S. in a tough spot, with higher interest to pay out or significant cutbacks to be made. And this is what Dalio calls the 'debt bomb', an economic heart attack waiting to happen. But here's the thing: this imbalance is not anything new. In fact, Dalio believes that these issues cycle repeatedly through time, and that what's needed to mitigate their impact is a deep understanding of the 'cause and effect' dynamic. So, what can we learn from history? According to Dalio, the key is to study the mechanics of how these conflicts have played out in the past, and to use that knowledge to inform our decisions today. As he so aptly puts it, 'Whenever things are coming along that I had not seen before, I really needed to understand if they happened in history so I can understand the mechanics, which is why I study history.' And this is where we invite you to join the conversation: do you think Dalio is being overly pessimistic, or is he right to sound the alarm on these issues? Do you think America can pull together and rise above its differences, or are we headed for a period of prolonged conflict and instability? Let us know in the comments. The Fortune Global Forum returns on October 26-27, 2025, in Riyadh, where CEOs and global leaders will gather for a dynamic, invitation-only event shaping the future of business. Apply for an invitation and join the conversation.
