The U.S. job market is in trouble, and it’s not just a whisper—it’s a warning sign that’s hard to ignore. Last month, America saw virtually no job growth, according to Moody’s, with any new roles concentrated in just three of the wealthiest states: California, New York, and Massachusetts. But here’s where it gets even more concerning: these gains were almost entirely in the education and healthcare sectors, leaving other industries in the dust. And this is the part most people miss—smaller companies, already reeling from tariffs and restrictive immigration policies, are being hit the hardest, while only the largest corporations are adding jobs.
The government shutdown has thrown a wrench into the works, disabling the usual economic health checks and leaving analysts scrambling for private data. Without the critical insights from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), markets are climbing on optimism alone—but is that enough? Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi warns that private data paints a far less rosy picture. For instance, Revelio Labs estimates a modest 60,000 job increase in September, but ADP reports a startling 32,000 job loss. When averaged, these numbers suggest essentially no job growth at all.
But here’s the controversial part: While some argue private data is filling the gap, others, like UBS’s Paul Donovan, caution that relying on it is like “viewing the economy through a keyhole”—limited and incomplete. Without official data, modeling becomes less accurate, and the true state of the economy remains obscured. Meanwhile, Glassdoor’s data shows salaries dipped slightly in September, and consumer confidence is at its lowest since the pandemic. This raises a critical question: Is the job market weakening faster than we realize?
As the shutdown drags on, economists predict it will last beyond mid-October, complicating the Federal Reserve’s next move on interest rates. Pantheon Macroeconomics warns that when BLS data finally returns, it may reveal a more depressed economy than expected. So, here’s the thought-provoking question for you: Are we underestimating the fragility of the job market, and what does this mean for the average worker? Share your thoughts in the comments—let’s spark a discussion.
